Blackjack Card Counting

Let’s take a single deck Blackjack game as an example.

There are, of course, 4 cards of each kind, representing the 4 different suits of a set. But in Blackjack, 4 card types produce the same value. A 10, a Jack, a Queen, and a King all have the same value, thus increasing the possibility of the occurrence of a 10. In a 52-card deck, there are 16 cards that will give you a 10. This means an 8.32 % chance that the card you will receive will be a face card or a 10. That’s a pretty big statistic.

Multi-deck games will produce the same stats, since no matter the number of decks that are used, the apportionment is still the same.

So, what does this mean?

Well, by studying the cards that have been revealed on the table during the series of games that have used the same deck, or decks, you’ll be able to intuitively predict the probability of the card you or the dealer will draw, which in turn heightens your chances of beating the dealer.

For example, there are 6 players at one table. That would mean 7 pairs minimum per game, including the dealer’s. That’s 14 cards minimum per game! Supposing that some of the players decided to HIT, including the dealer. That’s around 20 to 24 cards consumed per game.

If you’re playing a single deck game (which is uncommon, but this is only meant as an illustration,) only 28 cards would remain for the second game.

Supposing low value cards appeared during the first game, as well as 10 face cards, which would mean that there are 6 cards with a value of 10 and 20 lower value cards remaining in the second game.

Now, knowing what we have discussed so far, how would you treat the following situation?

blackjack card counting example

The encircled pair is your hand.

The answer is quite clear, isn’t it?

Your cards produce a total value of 16. This is a soft hand. Why? Because it is always assumed that the dealer will draw a card with a value of 10. Since the dealer’s hand is already a 7, his total would jack up to 17, which would clearly beat your 16.

Ordinarily, basic strategy would suggest that you should HIT. But here you’re in a predicament if you decide to HIT because the chances of you going over 21 are big.

And ordinarily, if you decide to STAND, the chances of the dealer beating you are big as well.

So what should you do?

Thankfully, since you’ve been monitoring the cards that have appeared, you know that all the 10-value cards have been used in the previous game and in the current game. So the chance of the dealer’s unrevealed card being a 10 is 0%. This makes life easier for you.

Don’t HIT. STAND.

Never mind if your hand is only 16. It’s impossible for the dealer to reach 17 with his current pair anyway. He’s in a dire situation where he could possibly go over 21, which would make you an automatic winner.

This example is a good introduction to card counting.

Card counting is basically the strategy of watching the cards that have appeared on the table and drawing some reasonable predictions from them.

Edward Thorp is considered the father of card counting. He may not have invented the method, but in his book, Beat The Dealer, he was the first to publish the strategy for public consumption. This, in turn, led to the resurgence of Blackjack, and casinos in general, during the pivotal 1960s.

Card counting is not technically illegal. The player is allowed all the means at his disposal to ensure his victory in the game, as long as such means are not against the rules of the house. Card counting is a mathematical process based on the cards that are freely revealed on the table. This cannot be outlawed, though some casinos have taken some preventive measures to protect their houses against such advantages employed by learned players. We will discuss these in a later section.

There are many kinds of card counting methods. But the Hi-Lo method is the one which is most practiced and the one which has reaped the most rewards for many, many players.

The Hi-Lo Method
Perhaps the most popular card counting method is the Hi-Lo system.

The Hi-Lo system makes use of positive and negative numbers to determine how winnable a certain Blackjack game is. The rationale behind the use of the system is quite simple. While keeping track of the numbers laid down on the table would be a surer thing, it is quite difficult, especially when you’re dealing with multiple decks.

The Hi-Lo method seeks to remedy that.

You still have to keep track of the cards that have been played, of course, but you no longer have to remember their kinds. Instead, you assign a positive or a negative number to specific groups of cards.

It is a simplification of the rather complex mathematical formula that has been devised to beat the game of Blackjack. You won’t have to perform confusing calculations. Such would be impractical and virtually impossible to be undertaken on the fly, that is, during the moments of the game, which often fly very fast.

With the Hi-Lo method, you will just have to memorize some point designations for certain groups of cards. You will then perform a running count in your mind.

If the count is favorable to you, you are advised to jump into the game and place a bet.

If the count is not favorable to you, you are advised not to join the game or to lower your wager in the event that you’re already firmly entrenched on the table.

Take a look at the chart below.

blackjack card counting high low method

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